The link between EU’s old The relationship between the old EU member states (EU-15 ) and new member states joined with the enlargements of 2004 and 2007, the EU-10, is an asymmetrical relationship of structural dependency. Direct investment and trade flows have made ??the Eastern EU or EU-10 the production platform of Western Union. Through this link, exogenous shocks such as the 2008 crisis are quickly trasmitted. A structural crisis in the euro area would have disastrous effects, primarily on the banking system of these countries, in large part formed by branches of Western Europe banks.member states (EU-15) and the new member states of 2004 and 2007 enlargements (the EU-10 or eastern EU) it is an asimmetrical one.
From the analysis of the Crisis Observatory (http://www.osservatoriocrisi.it/), an initiative funded by the Friuli Venezia Giulia region to allow INFORMEST to monitor the EU economies of Eastern and Western Balkans, emerged some critical points. First of all the economic and financial integration with the “old states” of the western EU (the EU-15) – shaped in two decades of political relations, trade and investments- made ??the eastern EU (EU-10 formed by the new member states of the 2004 and 2007 enlargement) exposed to western EU economic trend. A particular sector was the banking sector, with 80% of assets in the hands of Austrians, Italian, German and Swedish banks. When the contraction in global demand and the devaluation of national currencies made ??it difficult for families and businesses in these countries to honor loans and mortgages in euro and other currencies ( as the Swiss franc), the real crisis had also become the credit crunch. The intervention of international institutions, EU central banks and European banks had allowed the commitment to the refinancing of the eastern branches. A deepening of the euro crisis of European Monetary Union resulting in the resurgence of the recession not only at the European but also to the global level, besides the immediate fallout of exports and investments, would force the western EU’s banks to secure the balance sheets, calling the capital “back home” and interrupting the financing of the eastern branches, from which a second phase of the credit crunch, this time a lasting one, which would sink the real sector, leaving the banking systems of these countries into chaos. Eastern Europe has only to lose in a possible euro crisis.